Samsung Electronics: Raise PO; more optimistic with buyback-based special bonus & solid memory price

研报英文原文证据摘录

Samsung Electronics: Raise PO; more optimistic with buyback-based special bonus & solid memory price

m long-term historical average (low-teens; peak cycle 6-

8x; trough/mid-cycle 10-20x+) and bottom of TSMC’s 2009-2025 P/E band (10-20x) to

be conservative (SEC’s low EPS growth after 2026 upturn). Similar to TSMC, SEC’s

earnings will be more stable with high margin/ROE profile even in 2028-30 due to AI

chip supply shortage and memory super-cycle. SEC will keep spending W50tn+ pa for

memory but its capacity (~0.7mn wafers per month in 2028) will remain tight for new

GPUs (eg, 3x HBM memory content increase for Rubin Ultra vs current Blackwell). This

looks different vs previous memory cycle (1-year deep downturn following 2-3 years

long upturn). PO revision for preferred shares is only +8%, given higher discount ratio vs

common used (new 32% vs old 25%), limited cash dividend budgets after special bonus

and more active buyback activities. New GDR (US$7,400 vs old US$6,250) is derived

from FX rate of near-W1.5k/USD.

Our understanding of Samsung/Hynix labor union negotiations

The disputes between management and labor union at Samsung and Hynix diverged in

timing and structure. SK Hynix: In early-September 2025, labor union and management

have reached a wage agreement, with the key terms, including: a 6% wage increase,

removal of the cap on performance-based bonuses, 10% of Hynix’s annual OP to be

distributed entirely as bonuses to employees. Under the new agreement, 80% of each

employee’s bonus will be paid within the year, while the remaining 20% will be

distributed over the following two years at 10% per year. This new policy will remain in

effect for the next 10 years.

Samsung Electronics: Since 2025, Samsung Electronics’ labor-union negotiations have