Backlog expands, execution risk remains; reiterate Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Backlog expands, execution risk remains; reiterate Neutral

Investment Thesis

Rocket Lab remains the most established small launch provider on the market. At Space Systems, Rocket Lab continues to capture

content across roughly one-third of its addressable market. However, the demands of Neutron development continue to weigh

on company time and resources, pushing profitability and positive free cash flow further out and limiting investments in other

areas of the business.AEROSPACE

Upcoming Catalysts Price PerformanceAND

■ First launch of Neutron (expected in 4Q26) $140

■ Additional HASTE missions. $120

■ DoW awarding Golden Dome task orders.

$100DEFENSE $80

$60

Base Case Assumptions $40

■ Launch Services growth outpacing that of Space Systems through the outyears. $20EQUITY ■ Adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2027 and positive free cash flow in 2028. Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 ■ Nominal SG&A expenses increasing ~5% annually.

RKLB

S&P 500 (rebased)

Source: FactSet

Upside Scenario Company DescriptionRESEARCH

■ Continued market share capture at Space Systems. Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space

■ Secured work on upcoming NSSL task orders. company specializing in launch services,

■ Neutron launch occurs on time and ahead of cost. spacecraft design and assembly, and

spacecraft components. The company

operates three launchpads across two

countries that enable up to 132

annual launches. While best-known for

Downside Scenario its launch business, the spacecraft

■ Failed Electron launches leading to further launch delays. and spacecraft component business

■ Further Neutron launch delays and cost overruns. generates the largest share of revenue

■ A Photon spacecraft fails to deploy or fails in orbit for some other reason.