Transports: First Look at Major Retailer Inventories – Modestly Aggregate Stocki

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Transports: First Look at Major Retailer Inventories – Modestly Aggregate Stocki

Transportation | Surface Transportation

May 21, 2026

Transports: First Look at Major Retailer Jonathan Chappell, CFA

212-497-0827 Inventories – Modestly Aggregate Stocking

jonathan.chappell@evercoreisi.com

Alex Johnson (Relative to Revenue Growth) Likely

212-497-0810 Providing Some Demand Support

alex.johnson@evercoreisi.com

Krystal Song The last (WMT) of the major non-AMZN retailers reported 1Q:C26

212-497-0822 earnings this morning (after AMZN reported three weeks ago),

krystal.song@evercoreisi.com providing us with another look at inventory vs. revenue trends as we

continue to analyze and forecast near-term retail demand changes (as

a proxy for freight demand) in a highly fluid environment. Greg Melich

details the important company-specific and stock-relevant takeaways

for WMT (initial reaction here), but from our perspective the rate of

change for inventory, and especially inventory growth less revenue

growth, is most meaningful for our Transports coverage. The details of

all retailers’ (WMT’s, HD’s – reaction here, TGT’s - reaction here,

LOW’s - reaction here, and AMZN’s – reaction here) inventories and

revenue trends are provided in the bullets that follow as well as in

Figures 1-7 on pages 4-5. The company-specific trends vary greatly,

with some (WMT, HD) posting inventory growth that exceeds revenue

increases and others (TGT, LOW, and now AMZN after being in the

prior category) generating revenue growth that exceeds inventory

builds. However, the aggregate takeaway is that some inventory

stocking is occurring (relative to revenue growth), which is likely

providing modest demand support for Transports, even if an apparent

overall demand inflection remains difficult to identify.