FLNC: Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

FLNC: Model Update

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

FLUENCE ENERGY, INC. May 21, 2026

Valuation

• As is the case with many of its peers, FLNC’s valuation case rests very much on whether the company can be successful in 2027 and beyond, and the

level of risk that investors should assign to that outcome.

• As visibility has improved for the company, driven both by data center demand and by better visibility into U.S. cell manufacturing capacity, we think a

longer-term view is merited. We are accordingly assigning an unchanged ~17x multiple to our FY2028 forecasts, which implies an FY2027 multiple of

approximately 23x. We believe those multiples are reasonable in the context of a) our still-conservative outlook for FLNC’s margin structure, b) expected

end-market growth and c) valuation for comparable businesses.

• The results of our analysis support a valuation of approximately $18 per share, close to where the stock is currently trading. With that in mind, we

continue to rate the stock as Neutral, and regard FLNC as fairly valued at the current level.

Investment Risks

Upside

 The energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth – it is possible that the company may be able to deliver higher revenue than our revised

model indicates.

 Small changes in margin assumptions can lead to much bigger changes in the earnings outlook for FLNC considering how low gross margins

are at this point. The result could be unexpected upside to the stock price.

 Additional trade measures targeted at Chinese companies could create pricing power for FLNC beyond what we have reflected in our model.

 The stock price currently reflects significant concerns regarding potential changes to public policy, specifically tax credits made available under

the Inflation Reduction Act.