BAH - F4Q26 Preview; Anticipate Buoyant F27 EBITDA Guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

BAH - F4Q26 Preview; Anticipate Buoyant F27 EBITDA Guidance

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report May 18, 2026

IT SERVICES: Government Services Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation

(BAH)Tobey Sommer

615-748-4435 Tobey.Sommer@truist.com BAH - F4Q26 Preview; Anticipate Buoyant F27 EBITDA Guidance

Jasper Bibb We anticipate mixed F27 guidance as Civil weighs on top-line growth while we see EBITDA

212-303-1742 upside. We lower our F27 revenue estimate to $11.46B (+1.1% y/y) from $11.74B (Street: Jasper.Bibb@truist.com

$11.48B) and EBITDA to $1.258B from $1.275B (Street: $1.238B). Civil (~29% of total

company sales) underperformed by 24 pts in calendar year '25 (down 17% vs. +7% outlays

Tyler Barishaw on a BAH weighted average basis). Trump's F27 budget request implies Civil spending down

212-303-4177 3% y/y on a BAH weighted average basis. Tyler.Barishaw@truist.com

Henry Roberts We think that shares could trade higher on upside EBITDA guidance. We anticipate the

212-326-3141 EBITDA guidance range to center around our $1.26B estimate vs. Street $1.24B, supported

Henry.Roberts@truist.com by the benefit of the $150M annualized cost reduction started in January. Our estimate

assumes 30 bps of margin expansion to 11.0% but still below the 11.2% high-water mark

set in F22. Adding the cost savings to the annualized F3Q26 EBITDA figure yields $1.29B

in '27 EBITDA. We envision guidance assuming ~5% growth in DoW & Intel and a ~5%

Stock Rating HOLD decline in Civil.

Unchanged

Top-line growth remains uncertain. OBBBA spending on Golden Dome could be a

Price Target $85.00 potential positive while the main risk is underperforming the 3% weighted average Civil

Unchanged spending decline. The funding outlook appears robust for DoW and Intel (~71% of total

company sales).