RAPP - RAP-219: De-Risked Path to Blockbuster Status in FOS; Assume Coverage with a BUY & Raise PT to $56 (was $44)

研报英文原文证据摘录

RAPP - RAP-219: De-Risked Path to Blockbuster Status in FOS; Assume Coverage with a BUY & Raise PT to $56 (was $44)

revenues of $1.27B, vs prior firm

Enterprise Value ($M) $1,296 assumptions of PoS-adj (65%) peak (2038) revenues of ~$972M. The variance is partially

Cash & Equivalents ($M) $477 driven by our higher pricing assumption. We forecast annual gross pricing of ~$50K per

Total Debt ($M) $0 year versus the firm’s prior estimate of ~$16K. Notably, we view our pricing assumption

Cash Per Share $10.44 as conservative relative to peer commentary. Competitors with more advanced FOS

programs (e.g., PRAX (Buy)) have suggested appropriate pricing could exceed $100K

per year. However, given RAP-219’s concurrent development in bipolar mania, our model

11 Page Document reflects a more moderate, cross-indication pricing framework. We also model a 2030

launch (vs prior 2029).

Reasons for this report • Bipolar Disorder: this opportunity represents potential upside to our model, vs prior firm assumptions of NPV per share value of $8 (15% PoS-adjusted 2038 ww revenues of

✓ Assuming Coverage $302M)

✓ Updating Estimates and PT

✓ Model Update Our Views

RAP-219 in focal onset seizures (FOS) could represent a best-in-category opportunity.

• Ph 2a data suggest differentiated efficacy vs key peers, with RAP-219 demonstrating

greater absolute monthly seizure reduction (-78%) relative to PRAX’s vormatrigine (-56%)

and XENE’s azetukalner (-53%). Seizure-freedom rates were also encouraging at ~24%,

modestly above ~22% for vormatrigine and materially higher than ~6% for azetukalner.

• Importantly, RAP-219’s safety profile appears favorable, particularly with limited evidence

to date of the psychiatric adverse events associated with earlier AMPA-R agents such

as perampanel (Fycompa).