H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB: Continued top-line weakness expected in 2Q (preview)

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H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB: Continued top-line weakness expected in 2Q (preview)

Equity Research

21 May 2026

H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB

Continued top-line weakness

expected in 2Q (preview)

Q results on 25 June (Mar-May). Key forecasts: -1% local HMb.ST/HMB SS UNDERWEIGHT

currency sales growth, +90bps GPM expansion, SEK 6.1bn Unchanged

EBIT. EPS forecast fall c. 2-4% for FY26-28E. Key for us is brand European General Retail UnchangedNEUTRAL

momentum – do not expect 2Q to show progress. Reiterate Price Target SEK 150.00

UW. PT SEK 150. lowered -7% from SEK 162.00

Price (20-May-26) SEK 163.00

Potential Upside/Downside -8.0%

H&M will report 2Q26 results on 25 June, covering March to May. We cut our local currency Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

sales growth forecast from +1.5% to -1.0% on weaker demand in April/May, reflecting weaker

consumer confidence, inflationary pressures on household spending power and less helpful Market Cap (SEK mn) 261532

weather as comps get tougher. Industry sales data looks softer into April for large markets such Shares Outstanding (mn) 1604.49

as Germany, the US, Spain, and Sweden, while weather likely dragged on performance in Free Float (%) 30.76

markets such as the UK and Eastern Europe. Our forecast implies c -2% growth in April/May 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.2

following growth of +1% in March - with the beginning of March stronger on weather and Dividend Yield (%) 4.33

Ramadan timing. We expect a negative calendar impact in 2Q (estimated 0.3ppts) related to Return on Equity TTM (%) N/A

German holiday timing and an additional Sunday, though this will reverse in 3Q. On current Current BVPS (SEK) 25.93

trading, we think c. +1% is a reasonable assumption at this stage given roughly 1ppt of calendar Source: Bloomberg