European Forestry, Paper & Packaging: Model updates post Q1 results

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European Forestry, Paper & Packaging: Model updates post Q1 results

Equity Research

21 May 2026

European Forestry, Paper & Packaging

Model updates post Q1 results

Higher inflation could delay volume recovery and higher

costs could squeeze margins in the near-term despite price

increases. Our preferred name is Smurfit Westrock and least European Forestry, Paper & Packaging NEUTRAL

Unchangedpreferred is Mondi.

Pallav MittalModel updates: We update our estimates for paper and packaging companies post Q1 results

+44 (0)20 7773 1376

and also to reflect latest volume and pricing trends, and FX. We nudge up our pricing estimates

pallav.mittal@barclays.com

across the board (especially in US) but factor in weak demand and higher costs in the near-term. Barclays, UK

In the FP&P space, we prefer downstream operators vs. upstream and reiterate our OW rating

Morayo Adesinaon Smurfit Westrock (PT $52/3900p), SIG (PT CHF13) and Huhtamaki (PT €31). Our UW-rated

+44 (0)20 3134 9537

names are Mondi (PT 680p) and Holmen (PT SEK295), where we see significant risk to consensus

morayo.adesina@barclays.com

estimates. We remain EW rated on Stora Enso (PT €12), UPM (PT €24) and SCA (PT SEK 92). Barclays, UK

In the section below, we discuss the current market situation across the value chain:

• Pulp: Pulp markets remain bifurcated across the value chain, with hardwood demand being

robust, while softwood demand continues to lag, keeping overall pricing at low levels despite

improvement over the last few months. Inventories are elevated in softwood but tighter in

hardwood, reinforcing the split market conditions, while pulpwood costs have started to

decline, although only partially flowing through to Q1 earnings due to lag effects.