Evonik: Earnings upgrades priced in – downgrade to Equal Weight

研报英文原文证据摘录

Evonik: Earnings upgrades priced in – downgrade to Equal Weight

Barclays | Evonik

Methionine remains the key upside lever, though risks exist: We attribute a significant

portion of near-term EBITDA upside to methionine, where tight supply (including ongoing

disruptions in Asia) and strong raw-material positioning are supporting pricing momentum,

with upside potentially extending into Q3. Marking current spot prices to market would suggest

a materially higher pricing contribution (c.€900m) vs. the €60m embedded in our model,

highlighting substantial upside risk to estimates. Our more cautious stance versus the mark-to-

market estimate reflects price normalisation in H2 and several key caveats in our mark-to-

market framework, which does not incorporate offsetting pressures from higher energy and raw

material costs, nor potential volume impacts from force majeure (e.g. Singapore) and planned

maintenance. As such, we caution that the realised earnings uplift is likely to be below

theoretical spot-driven upside.

FIGURE 1. Methionine prices at record level FIGURE 2. m2m pricing would indicate EBITDA of ~€900mn for Evonik

in 2026

6 1,000

China ($/t) €mn

Europe (€/t) 800 5 USA ($/t)

-200

Dec-25 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 Current May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 May-26

Source: Feedadditivenews, Barclays Research Source: Feedadditivenews, Barclays Research

Share price outperformance now limits upside potential: Evonik’s share price has materially

outperformed peers since the onset of supply disruptions (+22% vs. ~+7% for diversified

chemicals excluding AkzoNobel and +4% including AkzoNobel), reflecting improved earnings

visibility and investor repositioning.