FLSmidth & Co.: Inexpensive, with several upside risks ahead; u/g to OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

FLSmidth & Co.: Inexpensive, with several upside risks ahead; u/g to OW

Equity Research

European Capital Goods

21 May 2026

FLSmidth & Co.

Inexpensive, with several upside

risks ahead; u/g to OW

FLS is pivoting from savings to growth & market yet to FLS.CO/FLS DC OVERWEIGHT

recognise it. This transition is not without risk (to margin) but from Equal Weight

tangible evidence of share gains in pumps & potential European Capital Goods UnchangedNEUTRAL

operating leverage in OE should drive DD EBITA growth. Price Target DKK 600.00

15-25% discount to MESTO/WEIR despite higher Gold raised 22% from DKK 490.00

exposure, u/g to OW. Price (20-May-26) DKK 517.50 Potential Upside/Downside +15.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Transition from cost cutting to growth has begun: After two consecutive years of shrinking

(helped to achieve profitability targets), we see a pivot to growth: DD order growth in Service for Market Cap (DKK mn) 29833

the past three quarters, clear market share gains in Pumps over the past 6m, potential for DD Shares Outstanding (mn) 57.65

growth in Products from 2027. Altogether, we see 11% EBITA CAGR over the next three years. FLS Free Float (%) 69.50

offers the highest Gold exposure across downstream peers (METSO and WEIR) at c20%, yet 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.1

trades at the lowest valuation multiples across the group: 12.5/11x EV/EBITA'26/27E (vs. 14-16x/ Dividend Yield (%) 0.77

12-14x for peers). We reduced 2026 EBITA estimates by 1.5% (slower 1Q), but raised 2027-28 Return on Equity TTM (%) 5.81

projection by 2.5-3% (mainly Products and Pumps), and see LSD upside to prevailing market Current BVPS (DKK) 186.37

estimates. We set new price target at DKK600 (higher estimates + lower WACC) and raise Source: Bloomberg

recommendation to OW (from EW).