StandardAero "The drivers of >$3bn LEAP revenue by 2035" (Buy) Parsons

研报英文原文证据摘录

StandardAero "The drivers of >$3bn LEAP revenue by 2035" (Buy) Parsons

Figure 2: Industry LEAP heavy shop visits Figure 3: Industry LEAP light shop visits

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visit P ligh

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P heav ry LEA

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Source: UBS estimates Source: UBS estimates

Market Share assumptions

We assume CFM steadily shifts LEAP shop visits to third party partners/

providers

In our build, we estimate what percent of shop visit share CFM will retain vs. shift to the

third parties. Heavy shop visits continue to be primarily CFM today, as they mature the

engine and gain technical expertise for upgrades and repairs, and de-risk the

maintenance profile to support third party providers stepping in relatively early in the life

of the engine.

How we made our share assumptions

For LEAP shop visits, GE recently stated that third party is conducting 15% of the total.

We estimate a light vs. heavy split and conservatively assume CFM is still 90% of heavy

visits with SARO 15% of third party in 2026 (15 visits in total). SARO has already

completed its first heavy shop visit and has more than 10 additional engines inducted for

heavy maintenance at this time. We assume third parties will begin capturing a greater

share of light shop visits sooner. In 2026E, we project third parties capture 24% of all

light visits, with SARO doing 25% (65 visits in total). As the first premier provider and an

independent MRO shop (ie not airline owned), we assume that SARO will secure a

greater share of work relative to some of the other third-party providers like airlines

which may focus on their own engines. Airline-owned CFM MRO partners include Delta,

Air France, Lufthansa, and recently Iberia.

We estimate SARO share of 3P heavy shop visits is 15% in 2026, going to