N.A. Chems & Pkg "The Daily InSpector" Spector

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N.A. Chems & Pkg "The Daily InSpector" Spector

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

N.A. Chems & Pkg Equities

AmericasThe Daily InSpector

Chemicals, Commodity

Joshua Spector, CFA

Updated autos production forecast Analyst

We provide a monthly update on the global automotive production outlook with the joshua.spector@ubs.com

latest forecast from the UBS autos team, who now estimate 2026/27 production of - +1-212-713 6188

2.4%/+0.8% Y/Y, -60/-80bp from the prior forecast. The downward revisions reflect a Lucas Beaumont

broad-based reduction in 2026 production expectations, though the magnitude varies Analyst

by region. This marks the third consecutive cut to forecasts, with reductions in all lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

regions. The largest negative revision was in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, +1-212-713 4809

reflecting direct geopolitical disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict, followed by Japan Christopher Perrella

& Korea. Other regions face more indirect headwinds, including higher costs and Analyst

reduced disposable income.The outlook for N.A was reduced only modestly, but there christopher.perrella@ubs.com

remains a general risk of delayed consumption driven by the duration of the impact and +1-212-713 1443

the knock-on effects of higher gas prices and broader uncertainty. The latest forecast Anojja Shah

incorporates a higher and more persistent oil price assumption through 2027. There is Analyst

also some evidence of production pull forward, ahead of potential input costs increases anojja.shah@ubs.com

and parts shortages, which puts risk to 2H26/2027 assumptions. We expect firms with +1-312-525 4310

higher content opportunities (i.e., ESI re: increasing electronics content; coatings EV James Cannon

opps.) to outperform units over time.