Euronext (1K) | Buy | Strong momentum

研报英文原文证据摘录

Euronext (1K) | Buy | Strong momentum

CF 861 957 1,044

EPS adj. and ful. dil. 8.04 9.06 10.02

in power derivatives (~90% market share) and increasing institutional support for the Consensus EPS 7.9 8.6 9.2

new custody platform. Net dividend 3.51 3.69 3.84

Structural European capital market reforms remain a major medium-term

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

catalyst. Management expressed unusually high conviction around the Savings &

P/E adj and ful. dil. 18.7 16.6 15.0

Investment Union agenda, viewing it as potentially transformative for equity EV/EBITDA 14.0 12.6 11.4

participation, lit market volumes and European market integration. This could EV/EBIT 14.2 12.1 10.4

structurally support trading velocity, retail participation and post-trade consolidation FCF yield 5.6% 6.4% 7.1%

over multiple years. Dividend yield 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%

ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.0 0.3 -0.3

Deconstructing the forecasts Gearing 21.2% 5.8% -8.1%

Forecasts are revised upward following the strong Q1 delivery with higher ROIC 10.3% 11.8% 13.4%

estimates for cash equities, post-trade and diversified services driving improved EV/IC 2.1 2.1 2.0

EBITDA and EPS expectations across FY2026 to FY2028.

Momentum into Q2 remains supportive while medium-term earnings quality

continues to improve through increasing recurring revenues, power derivatives

scaling and the progressive ramp-up of the CSD platform.

Valuation and investment conclusion Tobias Lukesch, CIIA

Valuation increasingly reflects Euronext’s transition from a cyclical exchange Equity Research Analyst

operator toward a diversified European market infrastructure compounder with +49 69 7569 6217

structurally higher recurring revenues and stronger operating leverage. tlukesch@keplercheuvreux.com