Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited: 4Q’FY26: EBITDA beat; Russian crude imports rise; Capex to pick-up in FY27

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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited: 4Q’FY26: EBITDA beat; Russian crude imports rise; Capex to pick-up in FY27

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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

4Q’FY26: EBITDA beat; Russian crude

imports rise; Capex to pick-up in FY27

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 255.00 INR | Price: 293.75 INR

4Q: EBITDA beat on strong GRM 21 May 2026

BPCL’s 4QFY26 standalone EBITDA of INR87bn beat consensus by 13%, aided by Equity

inventory gains. Crude throughput fell 1% QoQ (-2% YoY) to 10.4mnt; reported GRM

rose to US$18/bbl (3Q: US$13.25). We cut FY28E earnings by 8% (FY27E losses

Key Changeswidened) on lower marketing-margin assumptions, but raise PO to INR255/sh (from

INR220) on higher FY26 exit book value. We change income rating to 8 (from 7) on lower (Rs) Previous Current

forecast dividend. With net marketing margins likely negative near/medium term, BPCL’s Inv. Opinion C-3-7 C-3-8

high marketing-to-refining ratio remains a drag. Reiterate Underperform. Price Obj. 220.00 255.00

2027E EPS -32.72 -49.93

Russian crude imports to rise to 40+% in 1Q’FY27 2028E EPS 46.35 42.39

Russian crude was 31% in 4Q and has since increased to ~40–41%, as spot availability is 2029E EPS NA 52.88

now largely Russia-led. BPCL had planned to meet ~55% of crude needs via term 2027E EBITDA (m) -102,425.8 -223,615.4

contracts, but is currently receiving only ~45–46%, implying a ~10% shortfall that is 2028E EBITDA (m) 365,997.6 323,044.9

being covered through spot purchases—taking spot exposure to ~50%. The company has 2029E EBITDA (m) NA 399,180.5

tested additional crude grades (including Venezuela, Brazil and Angola); Venezuelan

crude, however, can be processed only via blends, with the crude slate optimized to Bharat Subramanian >>

product demand and overall value-add.