Novo Nordisk: PIII ZEUS under-appreciated 3Q catalyst; Scrip trends dominating current debate

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Novo Nordisk: PIII ZEUS under-appreciated 3Q catalyst; Scrip trends dominating current debate

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Novo Nordisk

PIII ZEUS under-appreciated 3Q catalyst;

Scrip trends dominating current debate

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 350.00 DKK | Price: 287.50 DKK

Ziltivekimab PIII ZEUS in 3Q26; c$5bn peak sales possible 20 May 2026

Ziltivekimab is a novel IL6 working on modulation of CRP as a novel marker of cardio- Equity

vascular disease. First PIII CV outcomes data from ZEUS is due in 3Q26 in patients with

a combination of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease & Sachin Jain, CFA >> Research Analyst

systemic inflammation. Globally c15m patients (US, EU5, JP) suffer with ASCVD & CKD, MLI (UK)

with c5-8m estimated by Novo as also suffering from inflammation (hsCRP>2), implying +44s.jain@bofa.com20 7995 9676

multi-$bn market opp. We model DKK29bn (c$4.5bn) peak sales with 45% PoS, thus Charlie Haywood >>

DKK13bn (c$2bn) risk-adjusted vs cons cDKK8bn (c$1.3bn). Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Strong precedent data but “risky” given first in class +44charlie.haywood@bofa.com20 7996 4165

We see 2 key precedent data sources for confidence: 1) CANTOS PIII study of Novartis’ Alexander Moore >>

canakinumab (an IL-1β operating upstream of IL-6), in patients with previous MI and Research Analyst

high hsCRP levels (inflammation). While overall study data was mixed, a pre-specified alexander.moore2@bofa.com

sub-analysis showed patients achieved hsCRP concentrations <2mg/L showed Keilah Carbonel-Deere >>

reductions of 25% in MACE, 31% in cardiovascular mortality, and 31% on all-cause Research Analyst

mortality, vs no significant reduction for hsCRP >2mg/L; 2) PII RESCUE zilti data at keilah.carbonel-deere@bofa.com