US Semiconductors: Agentic CPU: analyzing x86 vs. ARM opportunities

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US Semiconductors: Agentic CPU: analyzing x86 vs. ARM opportunities

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US Semiconductors

Agentic CPU: analyzing x86 vs. ARM

opportunities

Estimate Change

Server CPU TAM to reach $125bn, growing at +31% CAGR 19 May 2026

In this report, we update our CY30 server CPU market outlook and project market shares Equity

United Statesacross key vendors: 1) INTC, 2) AMD, 3) ARM (merchant), and 4) ARM (custom/ASIC).

SemiconductorsOverall, we now raise our server CPU TAM outlook to $125bn by CY30 from $110bn

prior, growing at +31% CAGR and from just ~$43bn in CY26, driven by increasing

agentic AI workloads and CPU usefulness. While all major CPU vendors potentially stand Vivek Arya

to benefit (with double-digit sales CAGR), our top picks include: AMD (maintain share in Research Analyst

BofAS

cloud, take share in x86 enterprise) and NVDA (to start ramping standalone Vera CPUs, +1 646 855 1755

integrate as part of full-stack architecture). We expect ARM (rated Neutral) to be the vivek.arya@bofa.com

fastest share gainer overall (~44% aggregate share by CY30 from just ~15% today), but Duksan Jang

Research Analyst

we see the opportunity as much more fragmented across many Arm-based vendors. BofAS

INTC is likely to continue ceding share in both cloud (ARM/AMD) and enterprise (AMD). +1duksan.jang@bofa.com646 556 4825

Agentic CPUs incremental to TAM, not cannibalistic MichaelResearch ManiAnalyst

Despite the rising role and significance of CPUs in agentic AI (see details inside), we BofAS

+1 646 855 2232

view CPUs as incremental to existing data center TAM, rather than replacing roles of michael.mani@bofa.com

existing components (such as the accelerator compute rack). We see two distinct Liam Pharr