Waiting for Volume Stabilization & Strategic Allocation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Waiting for Volume Stabilization & Strategic Allocation

May 11, 2026 Post Holdings, Inc.

(POST, Neutral)

Robert Dickerson

Waiting for Volume Stabilization & Strategic Allocation rdickerson@btig.comCONSUMER Hannah Lascher WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: hlascher@btig.com

■ Volume softness, but profit stability working. While POST topped Q2 profit Company Data

expectations, softer-for-longer PCB volume expectations (~50% of total sales), a Q3

Easter shift, Refrigerated Retail demand reversal, more normalized Foodservice H2 Closing Price $102.05

Price Target -STAPLES profit probability, and freight inflation concerns all kept FY'26 guidance unchanged

and sales/EBITDA revisions essentially flat. That said, the bar currently seems fairly Market Cap (M) $5,520.91

low for POST, as the company has now posted declining volumes for 13 consecutive Enterprise Value (M) $11,974.43

quarters, with a ~20% 3-year stacked Q2 PCB volume drop. Much is riding on the full Shares Out (M) 54.10EQUITY Nutrish dry dog food relaunch in the back-half of this fiscal year, as well as improving Avg Daily Vol-3 Months (M) 0.81

cereal category demand stabilization, as offsetting Foodservice profit upside so far

should start to wane, in our view. All that said, as long as POST continues to meet Dividend / Yield $0.00 / 0.0%

consensus EBITDA forecasts in the near term, the stock should still stack positively Revisions

relative to many U.S. public food names, driven partially by the company's cash Previous Current

balance, leverage, and go-forward capital allocation potential. Rating Neutral NeutralRESEARCH ■ Limited standalone growth expected; focus now on cash deployment. Visible Price Target - -

Alpha FY'27 sales and EBITDA consensus forecasts show zero growth is expected FY26E REV 8,466.16 8,388.83