Marks & Spencer (1K) | Buy | Normality in sight

研报英文原文证据摘录

Marks & Spencer (1K) | Buy | Normality in sight

ficult to read due to the scale of exceptional items, partly Consensus EPS 33.7 36.4

offset by a GBP100m insurance payment. Net dividend 3.80 3.80 3.80

Deconstructing the forecasts FY to 30/03 (GBP) 03/26 03/27E 03/28E

The company indicated during the call that its guidance for “profit growth P/E adj and ful. dil. 15.7 10.9 10.4

EV/EBITDA 6.8 5.7 5.3

resuming versus FY25” could be interpreted as mid-single-digit growth. This is EV/EBIT 12.9 9.9 9.1

slightly below Visible Alpha consensus expectations of c.+8%, but is nevertheless FCF yield 2.1% 7.2% 8.7%

reassuring. Dividend yield 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.6 1.4 1.1

We have adjusted our model after integrating the 2025/26 accounts. 2026/27 Gearing -10.6% -6.3% -17.2%

should mark a return to normal activity, with inventory levels no longer requiring ROIC 11.9% 12.6% 12.2%

elevated markdowns and good product availability. Cost inflation, which EV/IC 1.9 1.6 1.5

management largely attributed to government measures, should be offset by a

higher level of savings than in 2025/26 (GBP120m versus GBP89m).

The rebound should be strong year-on-year, with adjusted EBIT up 28%, but only

6.2% versus 2024/25, the last “normal” year. Our EPS estimate is 5% below

consensus.

François Digard

Valuation and investment conclusion Head of French Equity Research, Food retail & TIC analyst

The group has demonstrated its resilience through the storm. The appeal of its +33 1 70 81 57 47

model to consumers is undeniable, supporting expectations of growth ahead of its fdigard@keplercheuvreux.com

market.

2026/27 should be the year of a return to normal, although some disruption could

still remain, likely delaying a full re-rating. Tough, M&S remains our favourite UK

grocery name.