Central Plaza Hotel: Check in before the rush

研报英文原文证据摘录

Central Plaza Hotel: Check in before the rush

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Central Plaza Hotel

Check in before the rush

Rating Change: BUY | PO: 40.00 THB | Price: 30.75 THB

20 May 2026

Upgrade to Buy; An attractive opportunity post conflict Equity

We raise our 2027E-28E profit for CENTEL by 4-5% reflecting a stronger-than-expected

1Q26 result, which beat our estimate by 20%. We raise our PO to Bt40.0 (offering 32%

potential TSR) from Bt38.0 on updated estimates, based on the average between DCF Key Changes

(Bt44.4) and 22x PER target (Bt35.6). Our valuations remain unchanged. We raise our (Bt) Previous Current

rating for CENTEL to Buy from Neutral. We expect CENTEL to emerge as a consensus Inv. Opinion B-2-7 B-1-7

top pick in the Thai hotel sector once the ME conflict subsides, supported by superior Inv. Rating NEUTRAL BUY

earnings growth versus peers. The share price has fallen by 24% since the conflict began Price Obj. 38.00 40.00

and now trades at an attractive valuation of 20x 2026E P/E (vs peers’ average of 23x). 2027E EPS 1.79 1.87

We see compelling risk/reward for accumulation. The key downside risk remains a 2028E EPS 1.92 2.00

prolonged conflict that could weigh on Dubai hotel performance by ~Bt40mn per month. 2026E EBITDA (m) 7,059.1 6,932.2

2027E EBITDA (m) 7,343.4 7,339.3Narrowing new Maldives losses to offset Dubai weakness

New Maldives hotels recorded strong profit of Bt130-150mn in 1Q26, significantly 2028E EBITDA (m) 7,635.7 7,644.4

above our estimate of Bt30-40mn. Despite weaker tourist arrivals and rising oil prices

(accounting for 8-9% of total Maldives hotel costs), we expect losses from new Maldives Teerapol Udomvej, CFA ^^^

Research Analyst

hotels to narrow to ~Bt50mn in 2026 (vs Bt300mn in 2025).This should more than Kiatnakin Phatra Securities