SUMCO (3436): Revise up earnings estimates: silicon wafer supply-demand to improve; reiterate Buy

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SUMCO (3436): Revise up earnings estimates: silicon wafer supply-demand to improve; reiterate Buy

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SUMCO (3436)

Revise up earnings estimates: silicon wafer

supply-demand to improve; reiterate Buy

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 4,000 JPY | Price: 2,960 JPY

19 May 2026

Maintain PO at ¥4,000; reiterate Buy Equity

We raise earnings forecasts on stronger-than-expected 300mm/200mm wafer volumes

and improving spot pricing. Meanwhile, we keep the price objective (PO) unchanged due

to sector-wide valuation compression. We set the FY12/27 P/E at 42x (was 45x). Our Key Changes

investment rationale is based on a sharp earnings recovery driven by silicon wafer (¥) Previous Current

demand normalization and peaking depreciation burden. 2026E Rev (m) 373,300 412,500

2027E Rev (m) 437,400 462,800

Revise earnings: improved volume outlook for 300mm and 2028E Rev (m) 469,600 495,700

2026E EPS -90.07 -81.21200mm wafers

We revise OP forecasts to -¥15bn for FY12/26 (from -¥19bn; consensus -¥7.9bn) and 2027E EPS 88.64 95.79

¥46bn for FY12/27 (from ¥43bn; consensus ¥36.4bn). We expect 2Q OP loss of -¥1.7bn, 2028E EPS 174.43 183.01

broadly in line with company guidance of -¥2.4bn. The company guides for a 3Q OP loss 2026E EBITDA (m) 101,000 115,000

of -¥5.0bn to -¥6.0bn; no surprise is expected. Customer wafer inventories are likely to 2027E EBITDA (m) 149,000 152,000

continue declining, as in 1Q. 2028E EBITDA (m) 163,000 168,000

Capex by silicon wafer peers declines sharply Takashi Enomoto >>

Research Analyst

Capex by the five major silicon wafer companies fell significantly in Jan–Mar 2026, BofAS Japan

implying a marked slowdown in industry capacity expansion. In contrast, demand is +81 3 6225 8362

takashi.enomoto@bofa.com

improving visibly, supported by AI-related tailwinds.