The Weekly Chu: MS Capital Markets Day Takeaways

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The Weekly Chu: MS Capital Markets Day Takeaways

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

The Weekly Chu: MS Capital Markets Day Takeaways May 17, 2026

Week of May 18th, 2026

Weekly Intro: Fundamental vs. Valuation Disconnect. We’re nearly halfway through

2Q and macro / fundamental indicators have been tracking better across the board

– loan growth remains robust, deposit growth has been resilient, yield curve is

steepening, Apr. Brokerage KPIs were strong (despite tax seasonality), IB trends Steven Chubak, CFA

schubak@wolferesearch.com

have been more resilient (with ECM, DCM both tracking ahead of cons.), and Markets (646) 582-9315

activity remains robust. View Steven’s Research

View Comp Table

This has contributed to some of the frustrations echoed by both investors and

corporates – despite strong fundamentals fins. continue to underperform the broader Sharon Leung sleung@wolferesearch.com

tape (-7% vs. S&P +8%), and the performance gap has only widened as deposit (646) 582-9317

risks tied to AI / tokenization / stablecoin have come into greater focus. Many of Derek Gonda

the names that are perceived to be more exposed are now trading at depressed dgonda@wolferesearch.com (646) 582-9326

multiples relative to history -- BAC, WFC are trading at <10x 2027E (~30% discount

vs. 5Y average FY2); Retail Brokers are also trading at steep discounts vs. history Brendan O'Brien bobrien@wolferesearch.com

(10-12x, with SCHW / LPLA trading at 35% discounts vs. 5Y avg. multiples); and

the Super-Regionals are similarly trading at depressed multiples (<10x and ~30%

discounts versus 5Y average). While the threat of AI / tokenization risk on low-

cost consumer deposits will likely remain an overhang, given strong fundamentals