Hapvida: Some relief in 1Q26, but structural challenges persist. Underperform

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Hapvida: Some relief in 1Q26, but structural challenges persist. Underperform

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Hapvida

Some relief in 1Q26, but structural

challenges persist. Underperform

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 12.00 BRL | Price: 12.83 BRL

Better MLR, but growth and execution risks remain 19 May 2026

We raise our PO to R$12 (from R$7), mainly driven by the better-than-expected MLR in Equity

1Q26, but we keep our cautious view on and our Underperform rating. Despite the

positive MLR print, we continue to see persistent challenges related to the organic

Key Changesgrowth agenda, judicial deposits and ANS fines. In fact, we only expect net adds to

gradually recover by 2H26, as intense competition should continue to pressure growth, (BRL) Previous Current

limiting operating leverage. While the products restructuring efforts could drive mid- Price Obj. 7.00 12.00

term improvements, we believe it is premature to attribute the positive 1Q26 print to 2026E Rev (m) 31,945.8 32,071.9

these initiatives. 2027E Rev (m) 33,785.3 34,167.9

2028E Rev (m) 35,953.9 36,663.8

2026E EPS 0.47 0.74No easy fix for Southeast underperformance

While a major product restructuring is underway in the Southeast, we remain skeptical of 2027E EPS 1.06 1.15

its success until there is clearer evidence of traction. The success depends on several 2028E EPS 1.11 1.28

moving parts, including: i) product design, ii) pricing, iii) broker incentives, iv) marketing

execution and v) profitability. Moreover, we do not expect a major relief on the Flavio Yoshida >>

Research Analyst

competitive environment, making the success of this strategy even more difficult. Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

flavio.yoshida@bofa.com

Lower MLR partially offset by higher ANS fines Mirela Oliveira >>