NVIDIA Corporation: Q1 preview: top 5 debates ahead of earnings

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NVIDIA Corporation: Q1 preview: top 5 debates ahead of earnings

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NVIDIA Corporation

Q1 preview: top 5 debates ahead of

earnings

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 320.00 USD | Price: 222.32 USD

Top 5 debates beyond the beat/raise dynamics 18 May 2026

NVDA reports post-close on Wed, May 20, and we expect the usual historical 2-4%/$2- Equity

$4bn sales outperformance relative to current sell-side expectations. However, beyond

headlines, we expect the focus on: 1) Potential for enhanced cash returns, 2) Vera Rubin Vivek Arya Research Analyst

ramp timing (2H26E), 3) GM durability (~75% amidst continued memory/other cost BofAS

inflation), 4) Update to $1Tn CY25-27 forecast esp. contribution from LPU racks, CPU vivek.arya@bofa.com

and Vera Rubin Ultra, not included before, and 5) Competitive landscape changes against DuksanResearchJangAnalyst

Google TPU, agentic CPU, other ASICs. Maintain Buy, top pick, $320 PO on the BofAS

company’s dominance in the fastest growing tech market and its compelling valuation at duksan.jang@bofa.com

<20x CY27E PE or only 0.4x PEG relative to 46%+ CY25-28E EPS CAGR. MichaelResearch ManiAnalyst

BofAS

Compelling val’n but cash returns key to more ownership michael.mani@bofa.com

As discussed in our recent note, NVDA’s large existing positioning (8.3% of the SPX index, LiamResearchPharrAnalyst

~78% active fund manager ownership) often acts as a headwind. Other large cap tech BofAS

liam.pharr@bofa.com

names in the same position have added incremental investors by boosting cash returns

and appealing to dividend/income-oriented investors. NVDA hasn’t done this yet, with

only 47% of FCF from CY22-25 allocated to dividends/buybacks versus peers returning

around 80% of FCF.