Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Model Update

TD Cowen Goosehead Insurance

Global Research May 19, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

GSHD is poised to grow revenues at an 16% CAGR from 2025 to 2027 and post adj. EBITDA ■ 2Q26 earnings (Jul/Aug 2026)

margins (ex-contingents) of 22.6% in 2027, vs. 24.1% in 2024. This will likely continue to improve ■ Annualized written premiums will likely

longer term, given corporate agent and franchise recruiting efforts, rising productivity, rise 22% CAGR from 2025-2027

extensive carrier and referral partners, and leading technology. GSHD’s Quote-to-Issue

integrated Aviator platform allows agents to quote across products and carriers to determine

the best package of coverage in an efficient manner, improving quote time up to 80% faster

than the previous iteration.

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ Sustained 16% revenue CAGR from ■ Revenue grows more than 16% CAGR ■ Revenue grows less than our targeted

2025-2027 from 2025 to 2027, driven by better-than- 16% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, potentially

■ Adjusted EBITDA margins (ex-contingents) expected recruiting and productivity affected by slowdown in recruiting,

of 22.6% in 2027, vs 24.1% in 2024 reduced retention, and below-projected

productivity levels

Price Performance Company Description

Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Texas, Goosehead Insurance is an independent

$120

insurance distribution agency focused on selling personal lines P&C insurance products across

the United States. GSHD operates its business model through two distinct segments: the

100 Corporate Channel and the Franchise Channel, both of which are centrally managed from

GSHD's headquarters.

60 Analyst Top Picks

Ticker Price (05/18/2026) Price Target Rating

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.