Bangkok Dusit Medical (BDMS TB) Buy: Weak domestic sector; undemanding valuation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Bangkok Dusit Medical (BDMS TB) Buy: Weak domestic sector; undemanding valuation

9.8 9.2

ROE (%) 15.7 14.5 14.6 14.8

Thailand is a potential catalyst for better volume. Following the Thailand-Cambodia

border conflict anniversary, Cambodia will no longer be a drag starting 2H26. 52-WEEK PRICE (THB)

Expect net income to decline by 3.2% in 2027e: We now expect revenue to grow 24.00

by 2.5% Y-o-Y in 2026e (in line with management guidance for 2-4% growth). 20.00

However, we expect gross profit margin (GPM) to be under pressure in 2026e as a 16.00

result of higher doctor fees, drugs, and medical supply. As a result, we expect 05/25 11/25 05/26

EBITDA margin to compress in 2026e before recovering in 2027e. Our net income Target price: 22.00 High: 23.00 Low: 17.60 Current: 18.30

forecast is approximately 5%/5%/4% lower than consensus for 2026/27/28e. Within Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

Thailand, we now switch our preference for a foreign medical tourism-focused

hospital to Bumrungrad (BH TB, THB177.50 Buy, TP THB205). We believe BH is in a Selviana Aripin*, CFA

Analyst, ASEAN Consumer and Healthcare

better position to absorb margin shock against the background of an inflationary The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Singapore Branch

environment over the coming months. selviana.aripin@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 0610

Maintain Buy: That said, BDMS is trading at undemanding valuations with current

Rayman Kaur Chadha*

prices implying EV/EBITDA at 1.8 SD below the 5Y average. We believe post-election Associate

stability should unlock a stimulus package and support recovery in domestic Bangalore

consumption. In that regard, we expect BDMS, which is largely domestically focused, to

be a beneficiary. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is