B3 SA BRASIL BOLSA BALCAO: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

B3 SA BRASIL BOLSA BALCAO: Risk Reward Update

ey Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 20

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE R$26.00 BASE CASE R$22.00 BEAR CASE R$15.00

LT sustainable growth resumes Falling rates drive top line growth A turn for the worse

Structural reforms, accommodative financial Top line growth re-accelerates on the back Macro deteriorates and the government fails

conditions, and stabilization of global trends of falling interest rates, with equity and to pass needed structural reforms. Hence, a

results in better than expected macro derivative volumes pick up. B3 also benefits weak economy and high rates for longer

backdrop. Unemployment, confidence, and from increased hedging activity and a hinder the growth story. B3 postpones

local/international investments potential revival in equity and debt issuance. investments in the core business and easy to

improve. Capital markets in Brazil develop We also think operating leverage will realize initiatives longer than expected,

rapidly. Investments in the core business and provide a boost, while low indebtedness while competition gets tougher. Competition

new initiatives pay off, unlocking profitable supports attractive cash flow generation and across multiple businesses gets tougher.

revenue streams. profitability. Lastly, investments in new

initiatives have potential to unlock large and

profitable revenue streams.