dLocal Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

dLocal Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – dLocal Ltd (DLO.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Total Payment Volume Growth (YoY)

59.6 65.0 42.2 31.0

(%)

Revenue Yield (%) 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.7

Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) 25.4 22.7 23.6 23.5

Net Margin (%) 18.0 15.7 16.9 16.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Electronic payments and e-commerce RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

penetration across emerging markets EM e-commerce penetration picks up

Expansion to new geographies Geographic expansion & new client additions Sales / 1,506

Take rates play out faster than expected Revenue 1,446 1,567

Addition of new clients New products added to the platform (US$, mm) 1,524

Roll out of new solutions Higher share of wallet

Higher share of wallet among existing clients

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 342

EBITDA

Tougher competition could impact margins 313 370GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (US$, mm)

High client concentration 334

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Lower take rates 0-10%

China and India Regulatory decisions impact earnings & value

0-10% India Macro volatility in EM countries Net income

10-20% MEA Potential conflicts of interest between (US$, mm) 218 273

70-80% Latin America controlling and minority holders 249

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 0.78

0.75 0.90

(US$)

Inst. Owners, % Active 89.7% 0.83

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.5x

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.9% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a