XP Inc: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

XP Inc: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – XP Inc (XP.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Net Revenues Growth (YoY) (%) 8.0 9.6 16.7 14.3

Total AuC Growth (YoY) (%) 16.0 13.5 14.5 15.8

EBITDA Margin (%) 34.0 32.7 32.9 33.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Client base expansion RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Sustainably low interest rates Sustainable low interest rates

Growth of assets under custody Faster than expected client and AUC growth Sales /

IFA network Strong increase in disposable income Revenue 4,122 4,704

Credit Growth IFA network supports higher share of wallet (US$, mm) 4,531

New products added to the platform Banking and credit expansion

M&A

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 1,265

Net income

Economic challenges impact AUC growth 1,165 1,298GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (US$, mm)

Regulatory risks 1,245

Tougher competition pressures prices

0-10% North America Limited disclosure

2.41

0-10% UK Inflation/interest rates/fiscal deficit/FX EPS

2.22 2.48 90-100% Latin America volatility (US$)

2.35

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

23.6

View explanation of regional hierarchies here ROE Inst. Owners, % Active 73.6% 22.1 25.7

(%)

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.5x 24.0

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.9%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 24 3 Month 2/5 Month 1/5

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Horizon Horizon BEST MOST

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

Quintile exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a