STUB - BUY - Upgrading to BUY, $12.50 PT; See Upside to 2026 Numbers, Regulatory Risk Appears to Be Fading

研报英文原文证据摘录

STUB - BUY - Upgrading to BUY, $12.50 PT; See Upside to 2026 Numbers, Regulatory Risk Appears to Be Fading

MEDIA & LIVE ENTERTAINMENT

STUBHUB HOLDINGS, INC. May 19, 2026

6) Regulatory Risks Appear More Muted: Regulatory intervention by various government

entities (federal, state, international) was a primary risk we highlighted in our initiation. The

recent $10mm settlement with the FTC has led us to lower our probability of additional

federal action in the near-term. Additionally, on the international front, we saw action in the

UK as possible - however - no price cap legislation was included in the King's Speech earlier

this month at least pushing the timeline back on the risk there. Proposed legislation in NY

and CA have not appeared to gain much traction either in recent months. Taken in totality

we see the risk of regulation impacting 2026 results as very minimal (event the risk to 2027

now appears relatively low).

Valuation: We are upgrading STUB to a BUY (from NEUTRAL) and raising our price target

to $12.50 based on 10.0x our (slightly higher) 2027 EV/EBITDA estimate discounted back

(10.0x is up from 8.5x - on lower overall risk we see in the business given the 2026 outlook,

path to delver, and easing regulatory concerns). We use our 2027 forecast to try and

adequately capture our view of STUB’s forward growth initiatives: advertising, secondary

growth, and direct issuance. Our view is that STUB should trade at a material discount to

Live Nation (LYV) and a premium to Vivid Seats (SEAT).

Risks: Risks to our thesis include: The ticketing industry is competitive and STUB could

fail to maintain its current share or lose share to competitors; the business depends on

consumers wanting to attend large-scale live events, which could change due to a number of