Global Macro Commentary: May 21: Inflation Risks Complicate Relief Rally

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Global Macro Commentary: May 21: Inflation Risks Complicate Relief Rally

Update

May 21, 2026 10:08 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | Global Molly Nickolin

Strategist

May 21: Inflation Risks Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Complicate Relief Rally Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Iran negotiation headlines drove intraday reversals across oil and

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

rates; weak European PMIs reinforced stagflation concerns; US Gek Teng Khoo

activity data remained resilient; equities recovered into the close StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

as crude retraced; DXY at 99.20 (+0.1%); US 10y at 4.57 (-1.8bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoMarkets moved between inflation and growth concerns as geopolitical

developments drove energy volatility, while resilient US macro data contrasted Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

with deteriorating European activity indicators and reinforced policy divergence

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

themes across rates and FX. Nimish M Prabhune

Developed Markets Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

• US Treasuries finished mixed after a session driven by geopolitical Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Maria Chiara Russo

headlines, firmer US data, and inflation concerns tied to energy markets. Strategist

Yields initially rose after reports that Iran intended to retain enriched Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

uranium domestically, pushing Brent crude briefly back above $107/bbl and

lifting front-end yields (2y: +5bp intraday to 4.11%; 10y: +3bp intraday to

4.61%).