Quantitative Equity Research: Quant Matters – 2026 DM Quant Equity Mid-Year Outlook: Factors for an AI and Energy-Led Cycle

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Quantitative Equity Research: Quant Matters – 2026 DM Quant Equity Mid-Year Outlook: Factors for an AI and Energy-Led Cycle

Global InsightMcash-flow resilience, capital discipline and earnings selectivity in an energy-sensitive

market. In Japan, we recommend Forward Earnings Yield, Low PEG, and Up vs. Down EPS

Revisions, combining value exposure, valuation-aware earnings growth and bottom-up

earnings momentum in a rising but more dispersed equity market.

US quant factors – Quality Growth as AI Productivity Cycle

Offsets Energy Headwinds

In Exhibit 1 , we show the key US forecasts from our economists and strategists for 2026

and 2027. Our economists expect US growth to soften modestly through mid-2026 as

higher energy prices weigh on consumption, though AI-driven capex, fiscal support and

resilient labor markets should continue to support underlying momentum. On an annual

basis, real GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 as energy

pressures fade and the economy avoids recession. Inflation remains above target in the

near term, but both headline and core inflation are expected to decelerate over the

forecast horizon, allowing the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 before delivering two

cuts in 1H27.

Our US equity strategists continue to expect the rolling recovery to progress. The

constructive equity view is primarily an earnings story rather than a multiple-expansion

story. Positive operating leverage, AI adoption, “run it lean” efficiency gains, improving

pricing power and continued momentum in the AI capex cycle are expected to support

earnings growth. Sector preferences remain tilted toward Financials, Industrials,

Consumer Discretionary Goods and hyperscalers.

Exhibit 1: Key economist and strategist forecasts – US

Macro Current Estimates