AutoZone, Inc. Setup & Expectations – Raising 3Q Comp Forecasts with Exit under Scrutiny on Stack Math

研报英文原文证据摘录

AutoZone, Inc. Setup & Expectations – Raising 3Q Comp Forecasts with Exit under Scrutiny on Stack Math

Christopher Horvers, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-1316 21 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Our thesis is based on AZO’s leadership in DIY, share potential

in DIFM, and consistent margin and earnings performance, with

the latter driven by the compounding of EBITDA growth to

maintain leverage levels and fuel share repurchases. Moreover,

AZO is in one of the best industries in retail (low AMZN risk,

failure and maintenance-driven demand), which currently has

favorable fundamentals (car parc, gas prices, pricing).

Valuation

Our December 2026 price target of $4,300 is based on ~25x P/E

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Abs 0.8% -4.6% -8.8% -11.9% on our FY27 estimates, ahead of the stock’s historical average

Rel -7.8% -9.1% -16.4% -37.0% but in line with where it currently trades on FY26e given

temporarily depressed earnings (LIFO a ~$10 YOY EPSCompany Data

headwind in FY26e) and warranted, in our view, given visibility

Shares O/S (mn) 20

52-week range ($) 4,388.11-3,210.72 to comps reaccelerating as the macro backdrop improves,

Market cap ($ mn) 67,173.33 inflation reaccelerates, and AZO makes further progress on its

Exchange rate 1.00 DIFM initiatives.

Free float (%) 99.7%

3M ADV (mn) 0.19

3M ADV ($ mn) 684.2

Performance DriversVolatility (90 Day) 30

Index S&P 500

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 23|6|0

Key Metrics (FYE Aug)

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 18,939 20,526 21,950 23,451

Adj. EBITDA 4,223 4,317 4,812 5,123

Adj. EBIT 3,610 3,651 4,096 4,357

Adj. net income 2,498 2,518 2,847 3,014

Adj. EPS 144.82 148.67 173.77 192.42