LatAm Petrochemicals Riding the Tide: Updating Petchems Estimates and Upgrading Alpek to Overweight (Top Pick)

研报英文原文证据摘录

LatAm Petrochemicals Riding the Tide: Updating Petchems Estimates and Upgrading Alpek to Overweight (Top Pick)

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

21 May 2026

LatAm Petrochemicals

Riding the Tide: Updating Petchems Estimates and

Upgrading Alpek to Overweight (Top Pick)

We upgrade Alpek to Overweight and rank it our Top Pick within PetChems Latam Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

ACas we update estimates for the segment to reflect a more supportive post- Milene Clifford Carvalho

conflict setup, where tighter effective supply and higher logistics costs are (55-11) 4950-3475

rebuilding spreads. We see Alpek as the clear beneficiary of the near-term milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

inflection as higher ocean freight costs are widening the import-parity and Rodolfo Angele, CFA

supporting integrated PET margin expansion from 2Q26 onwards. Additionally, (55-11) 4950-3888

firm demand, effective paraxylene pass-through (including in contracted rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

volumes), and seasonal support into the World Cup period, drives our upward Henrique Cunha, CFA

revision to EBITDA expectations (+32% JPM). As a result, we see ALPEKA (55 11) 4950 3623

henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

trading at 4.2x ‘26 EV/EBITDA (vs 5.2x 10y average), with upside potential of Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

53%. For Orbia, we also see fundamentals improving under our revised CMA

assumptions, led by Polymer Solutions’ ethane advantage and broad-based

resilience across the portfolio, but we remain Neutral as the investment case is still

JPM estimates for Alpek’s EBITDA is 38%

anchored on execution and deleveraging. We see Orbia trading at 5.9x ‘26 EV/ above high-end of company’s guidance

EBITDA (vs 5.3x 10y average), with upside potential of 19%. $M