Explaining the 'vibecession'

研报英文原文证据摘录

Explaining the 'vibecession'

Figure 3 - The divergence in consumer sentiment Figure 4 - Like the UoM measure, the ANZ-RM

measures is also evident in Australia, although survey is also materially weaker that inflation and

both measures are well below average unemployment outcomes would suggest

Source: ABS, ANZ-Roy Morgan, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro StrategySource: ANZ-Roy Morgan, Westpac-Melbourne Institute, Macrobond,

Macquarie Macro Strategy

This has raised questions around what has been driving the differences and how we should interpret these consumer

confidence measures.

• We find that in the US the differences in part reflect different specific questions in the two surveys.

• In Australia, the factors driving the greater weakness in the ANZ-RM measure relative to the W-MI measure are less clear,

with pessimism in the ANZ-RM survey more broadly based.

• In both economies, growing polarisation has also been a factor, with the gap between perceptions among those that

identify as voting for the party in power (in the US, the Republicans and in Australia, the Labour Party) and those that

identify as voting for the opposition or independent historically large.

Þ Notably, those identifying with the opposition or independents are feeling particularly negative about the future.

Þ In contrast, those who identify as voting for the Government remain relatively happy (albeit below historical highs).

Consumer sentiment in the US

Different views on 'present situation' is driving the divergence across the US sentiment indices

In the US, the divergence is most pronounced between the 'present situation' sub-indices:

• The UoM measure has fallen sharply since April 2021 to historic lows.

• The Conference Board index remains above long-run average, albeit weakening in recent years.