Commerzbank: Model update post Q1 results & new targets

研报英文原文证据摘录

Commerzbank: Model update post Q1 results & new targets

Equity Research

European Banks

20 May 2026

Commerzbank

Model update post Q1 results &

new targets

CBK raised '26-28 and set '30 targets, but market reaction was CBKG.DE/CBK GY OVERWEIGHT

muted. NII visibility is strong and some assumptions Unchanged

conservative, yet limited cons upgrades and no added cost European Banks UnchangedPOSITIVE

action to '28 cap near-term upside. Reiterate OW: downside Price Target EUR 42.00

protected by UCG, upside if delivery on stand-alone strategy. Unchanged

Price (19-May-26) EUR 36.13

Potential Upside/Downside +16.2%

We are mixed on the new targets presented by CBK. Together with Q1 results, CBK outlined Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

its defence (raising 2026-28 targets, introducing 2030 ambitions and clarifying the strategy), but

investor reaction was muted, as reflected in the share price. Overall, the targets appear Market Cap (EUR mn) 39051

reasonable to us: (1) a large share of revenue growth is effectively 'secured' given strong Shares Outstanding (mn) 1080.85

visibility on the replicating portfolio (long duration), (2) some conservatism was embedded in Free Float (%) 58.81

the assumptions (no volume growth in hedge income, cautious deposit beta, potential cost 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 3.6

upside from AI), but (3) the lack of positive consensus revisions (with targets broadly in line) and Dividend Yield (%) 3.04

the lack of incremental cost action by 2028 (though additional cost cutting is targeted for Return on Equity TTM (%) 8.10

2029-30) likely limit near-term enthusiasm. We remain OW and view the setup as win/win for Current BVPS (EUR) 28.29

CBK shareholders: UCG offer provides downside protection while CBK stand-alone strategy Source: Bloomberg