European Cement: Q1'26 model updates (BZU, VCT, HEI)

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European Cement: Q1'26 model updates (BZU, VCT, HEI)

Equity Research

20 May 2026

European Cement

Q1'26 model updates (BZU, VCT,

HEI)

European cement producers all maintained FY guidance European Construction, Building Materials

despite weaker Q1 volumes (weather) and macro uncertainty. & Infrastructure NEUTRAL

UnchangedThe pricing story for 2026 remains largely intact, in our

view, with the full impact to be seen from Q2, supported by European Construction, Building

Materials & Infrastructure

energy surcharges. Following Q1 results we update our Tom Zhang, CFA

numbers below. +44 (0)20 3555 1395 tom.zhang1@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

HEI: Q1'26 results came in broadly in line for both revenues and earnings for Heidelberg Katherine Hearne, CFA

Materials. The company has maintained FY guidance but points to "a significant recovery in +44 (0)20 7773 2041

demand is already visible in many markets at the start of the second quarter", suggesting a katherine.hearne@barclays.com

more positive demand picture than we had previously expected. On the other hand, we see Barclays, UK

some risk of price/cost pressure through the remainder of the year assuming that energy Pierre Rousseau

inflation persists, though the group is aiming to cover this via fuel surcharges. Margin miss in +33 (0)1 4458 3377

North America which could be explained by mix (weather disruption). Europe earnings were pierre.rousseau@barclays.com

solid and suggest some positive pricing already. We update our numbers for Q1, M2M FX BBI, Paris

assumptions, and make minor increases to volume estimates in selective markets for Q2, which

increases our FY26-28 EBITDA estimates by ~1%. We now look for €3,618m for FY26 EBIT (RCO),

which is just above the mid-point of FY guidance (RCO: €3.4-3.75bn) and 2% above Bloomberg