PT Avia Avian "Oversold on oil concerns" (Buy) Chew

研报英文原文证据摘录

PT Avia Avian "Oversold on oil concerns" (Buy) Chew

s.

movements. Recognizing the fluidity of the disruption in the Middle East and its impact 12/26E 33 28 -16 27

on global oil prices, we test AVIA's earnings sensitivity against UBS's Global Oil team's 12/27E 35 32 -9 32

four price scenarios. Under the base case (~US$86/bbl), we estimate earnings growth 12/28E 38 34 -9 34

deceleration of -2% and expect margins to recover from 2027E, while even at elevated

levels (~US$100/bbl), earnings downside is contained at -10%, with only a more Bernice Chew

extreme stress case (~US$132.5/bbl) implying -30% downside. In addition, AVIA retains Analyst

bernice.chew@ubs.com

additional earnings levers through discretionary A&P spend, supporting margin

+65-6495 3507

resilience and recovery beyond cost normalization.

Permada Darmono

Government initiatives and capital flexibility could provide mid-term upside Analyst

permada.darmono@ubs.com

Beyond cyclical factors, we believe AVIA offers underappreciated medium-term growth +65-6495 3137

optionality. Indirect exposure to government initiatives such as the 3 million Housing

Program could drive ~1ppt volume growth, with 6–8% potential upside as execution

scales, while rural programs (Kopdes) could support further penetration. Coupled with a

strong balance sheet (Rp1.7trn cash on hand and 0.16x net D/E) and robust FCF

generation (Rp1.3-1.8trn over 2026-28E), we believe AVIA has clear capacity for bolt-on

M&A in adjacencies such as adhesives and construction chemicals.

Valuation: DCF-based price target of Rp500 (from Rp840); resume at Buy

Trading at 13x forward PE (c.20% discount to global peers despite higher growth and

returns), we see compelling value with clear catalysts for a potential re-rating.