First Read: MakeMyTrip "Q4FY26: Outbound softness to continue" (Buy)

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: MakeMyTrip "Q4FY26: Outbound softness to continue" (Buy)

2.28

1.8% for Q4FY26 (vs management guidance of 1.8-2%), despite softer revenue

growth, aided by cost efficiencies. Aditya Chandrasekar

Analyst

Has the company's outlook/guidance changed? aditya.chandrasekar@ubs.com

Air: Impact from the conflict is expected to continue into Q1FY27 as elevated crude oil +91-22-6155 6056

prices and depreciating rupee weigh on demand. Additionally, some airlines have also Navin Killa

curtailed international capacity impacting supply. However, management aims to offset Analyst

this by increasing focus on domestic travel, especially in a seasonally strong Q1. navin.killa@ubs.com

Hotel: While volume growth is expected to remain healthy, management highlighted +852-2971 7594

that GBV growth will continue to be impacted by GST rate cuts (as base is at higher GST Heenal Gada

rate). The ongoing crisis will have an impact on international accommodation in Q1 as Associate Analyst

well. Overall: Management is confident of adj. margin growth rate in the 20s (cc) in heenal.gada@ubs.com

steady state (vs 18-20% in prior 3-4 quarters, impacted by multiple one-offs. +91-22-6155 6076

Management expects margins to remain largely range bound for now, despite shift

towards higher margin hotels. AI: Management does not consider this a threat, with the

company's own AI platform (Myra) expanding in capabilities as well as interactions.

Valuation: Maintain Buy with a PT of US$85

Recovery of international travel (both air and hotel, especially west bound) is a key

monitorable going ahead.

Highlights (US$m) 03/23 03/24 03/25 03/26E 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E

Revenues 415 567 704 772 880 1,058 1,266 1,509

EBIT (UBS) 55 111 156 174 227 304 413 508

Net earnings (UBS) 23 264 139 66 84 156 262 394