Royal Gold Inc "Hod Maden restructuring: positive progress" (Buy) Major

研报英文原文证据摘录

Royal Gold Inc "Hod Maden restructuring: positive progress" (Buy) Major

Hod Maden operator Q1 3.30 2.72

Lidya Madencilik will fund the next $397m. The estimated remaining development Q2E 2.74 2.80

capital cost for the project was $910m as of November 2025; implying a further Q3E 3.13 3.04

cash commitment for RGLD of ~$65m (15% of ~$450m outstanding capex), most Q4E 3.37 3.23

likely in 2027/28. 12/26E 12.54 11.60

12/27E 12.88 13.74

Hod Maden overview: 12/28E 12.73 13.40

Hod Maden is a high-grade, bulk-tonnage underground gold-copper development

Daniel Major

project in north eastern Turkey. A 2026 technical report (LINK) targeted production of Analyst

1.6moz of gold & 209mlbs (~95kt) of copper over a 13yr mine life with first 5 year daniel.major@ubs.com

production targeted at ~225koz of gold & 10kt of copper. RGLD expects to receive +44-20-7568 3472

attributable production of approximately 9koz GEO from the new royalty structure

George Eadie

(4.5% NSR) at Hod Maden. Analyst

george.eadie@ubs.com

Valuation: Buy rated; $325/sh price target +1-646-996 4596

At spot, RGLD trades at an attractive <11x 2027 EV/EBITDA, below its long-term average Ethan Hong

of 14-15x. The investment case has been simplified following the closing of the Associate Analyst

Sandstorm/Horizon deal and providing maiden 5yr guidance at the investor day earlier ethan.hong@ubs.com

this year. We think RGLD can close the valuation gap vs historical levels/peers over the +1-212-649 8258

next 9-12mths as the investment story is better understood and the balance sheet

continues improving. Read more in our recent initiation.

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 606 719 1,030 2,002 2,105 1,985 1,829 1,735

EBIT (UBS) 303 430 638 1,286 1,335 1,237 1,102 956