Australian Economic Comment "Consumer sentiment implies ~flat consumptio..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

Australian Economic Comment "Consumer sentiment implies ~flat consumptio..."

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

Australian Economic Comment Economics

AustraliaConsumer sentiment implies ~flat consumption.

House price expectations remarkably resilient. George Tharenou

Economist

george.tharenou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3520

Stephen Wu

Consumer sentiment in May-26 bounced 3.5% m/m, to 83.0; albeit still Economist

implying the risk that real consumption growth slows sharply towards ~flat. stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

House price expectations remain remarkably resilient, despite another RBA

rate hike & Budget tax changes; still implying dwelling prices could rise solidly. Izzy Lowe

Associate Economist

RBA face policy dilemma: surveys of inflation expectations remain high, izzy.lowe@ubs.com

despite fuel prices retracing. UBS still expect RBA to hike 25bps in Aug-26. +61-2-9324 2651

Stephanie La

Consumer sentiment in May-26 bounced 3.5% m/m to 83.0; but still weak Associate Economist

Consumer sentiment (Westpac-Melbourne Institute monthly survey) in May-26 bounced stephanie.la@ubs.com

by a relatively modest 3.5% m/m, to 83.0; albeit only partly offsetting a collapse over +61-2-9324 2655

recent months, including Apr-26 that dropped -12.5% m/m, to 80.1, which was the

lowest since Nov-23. Consumer sentiment is now still down 9.9% y/y; and -1.5 standard

deviations below its average (since 1974). Consumer sentiment overall is still weak, but

in May-26 arguably showed some surprisingly resilience to the negative impacts of: 1)

the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is keeping energy prices (and hence inflation

expectations) elevated; and 2) the RBA raising the cash rate by 25bp for a 3rd

consecutive meeting.

Consumer sentiment still implies real consumption could slow towards ~flat