First Read: Orlen SA "Draft act on fuel windfall tax in Poland" (Neutral)

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Orlen SA "Draft act on fuel windfall tax in Poland" (Neutral)

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesOrlen SA

Draft act on fuel windfall tax in Poland Poland

Oil Companies, Secondary

12-month rating Neutral *

What happened?

Polish government published a draft act to impose extraordinary profit tax on companies 12m price target PLN120.00

engaged in activities in the field of production of liquid fuels or import/purchase of liquid

fuels in Poland from 1 March to 31 December 2026. The tax base is proposed to be

Price (19 May 2026) PLN143.34

calculated as the excess revenues generated over the amount of revenues using the

average margin of liquid fuel sales from 2025 increased by 20%. The tax rate is RIC: PKN.WA BBG: PKN PW

proposed at 75%. The tax collection system will be based on a self-calculation Trading data and key metrics

mechanism, including monthly advances and annual settlement.

52-wk range PLN145.12-70.52

Market cap. PLN166b/US$45.4b

What could be the implication for Orlen?

Shares o/s 1,161m (ORD)

The draft at this stage does not include details around the exact scope (i.e. whether it

Free float 68%

will only affect wholesale or retail part of the business or both), nor the detailed formula

Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,357

(what level of margin would be used and to what extent higher premia for crude could

be accounted for). Previously the Ministry stated that VAT and excise tax cuts at the Avg. daily value (m) PLN304.8

pump cost ~PLN1.6bn/month to the government and that planned windfall tax was Common s/h equity (12/26E) PLN164b

expected to exceed PLN4bn (~8% of FY26 EBITDA for Orlen UBSe). If we base our P/BV (12/26E) 1.0x

calculation solely on revenue (not accounting for higher premia paid for actual crude) EPS (UBS, diluted) (PLN)