US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment "SemiBytes: NVDA H200, Enterprise AI..."

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US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment "SemiBytes: NVDA H200, Enterprise AI..."

Global Research

18 May 2026ab

US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment Equities

AmericasSemiBytes: NVDA H200, Enterprise AI Survey,

Quarterly WFE, Earnings Previews (SMTC) Semiconductors

Timothy Arcuri

Analyst

timothy.arcuri@ubs.com

NVDA - H200 incremental to 1T BW+Rubin backlog, but shipments still +1-415-352 5676

dependent on China approvals

Grant Joslin

On the heels of recent press reports indicating that NVDA has secured U.S. government Analyst

approvals to ship H200 GPUs to ~10 Chinese customers, we note that actual deliveries grant.joslin@ubs.com

remain pending, leaving the potential ramp in a state of near-term uncertainty. +1-201-352 0442

According to multiple sources, while export clearance has been granted for NVDA’s Natalia Winkler, CFA

second-most powerful AI chip, no shipments have been executed to date, underscoring Analyst

ongoing execution risk despite regulatory progress, particularly as CEO Jensen Huang natalia.winkler@ubs.com

engages in discussions in China this week. Recall that NVDA previously sized the China +1-415-352 4626

AI opportunity at ~$50B annually, and while the U.S. approval represents an important Gianmarco Vella

gating factor, we believe additional layers of Chinese regulatory approval could present Associate Analyst

incremental friction and delay the timing of deployments. In our FQ1:27 (Apr) earnings gianmarco.vella@ubs.com

preview, we estimated Hopper revenues of ~$8B in C2026, but in light of these +1-415-352 4555

developments - and assuming eventual conversion of these approvals into shipments - Aaryan Wadhwa

we see a credible path to upside versus our current forecasts, contingent on resolution of Associate Analyst