Coloplast (360) | Buy (Not Rated) | Just a flesh wound

研报英文原文证据摘录

Coloplast (360) | Buy (Not Rated) | Just a flesh wound

% 4.7% 5.3%

Dividend yield 4.0% 4.2% 4.5%

than another reset of expectations. ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.7 1.9 1.6

▪Forecasts are below ambition, not stretched. Our model sits within FY 2025/26E Gearing 139.1% 112.8% 88.8%

guidance and remains below the Impact4 ambition thereafter. We assume a gradual ROIC 23.2% 25.4% 26.9%

EV/IC 2.8 2.7 2.7 recovery to 6–7% organic growth and a margin rebuild toward c. 30% by FY

2029/30E, supported by core operating leverage but tempered by cautious Sector Most Pref. Fresenius SE

assumptions on Kerecis, China, and FX.

▪A re-rating call, rather than a beat-and-raise call. Our DKK482 TP is based on a

60/40 DCF/peer valuation blend. The upside comes mainly from partial multiple

normalisation from trough levels, supported by resilient core growth and strong

cash generation. With the stock trading near trough valuation levels, we see most of

the upside coming from partial multiple normalisation, not from aggressive

earnings upgrades.

Research Framework

Investment case Valuation methodology

n We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and DKK482 target n DCF: DKK492 per share, 60% weight, WACC 7.7%, terminal

price, implying attractive upside to a high-quality medtech growth 2.5%.

franchise trading near trough valuation levels. n Peer multiples: DKK466 per share, 40% weight, based on

n The market has, in our view, over-extrapolated the Kerecis peer median NTM EV/EBITDA plus quality premium.

reset to the broader group, despite c.85% of revenue still n Blended target price: DKK482.

growing at a 7–8% organic rate. Risks to our rating

n Kerecis remains a problem asset, but expectations have n Slower-than-expected Kerecis stabilisation or further