Storytel (1K) | Buy | Resilient amid Spotify concerns

研报英文原文证据摘录

Storytel (1K) | Buy | Resilient amid Spotify concerns

Storytel Buy | Target Price: SEK120.00

Estimate revisions and assumptions

 Revenue: We lift our 2026–28 revenue estimates by 2–5%, primarily driven by the

consolidation of Overamstel Publishers from mid-May. This is partly offset in 2026 by

underlying Publishing cuts after Q1 came in below our forecasts, while we have adopted a

slightly more positive view on Streaming, supported by management’s upbeat comments on

Europe and a reduced FX headwind. We forecast 8% net revenue growth in 2026 and an 8%

CAGR over 2025–28E.

 EBITDA: Storytel continued to demonstrate an efficient model in Q1, again outperforming our

estimates. While we note management’s commentary that part of the growth will be

reinvested, including in the Streaming push across Europe and the Americas, we extrapolate

some of the Q1 outperformance. Together with the consolidation of Overamstel Publishers,

this lifts our 2026–28 EBITDA estimates by 2%. For 2026, our forecast implies EBITDA growth

of 19% and a 15% CAGR over 2025–28E.

 Free cash flow: We raise our 2026–28 free cash flow estimates by 4–5%, mainly reflecting

higher EBITDA estimates. This implies an FCF CAGR of 28% over 2025–28E.

 Target price: Using our blended valuation approach, combining DCF analysis and a target

EV/EBITDA multiple, we lift our target price to SEK120 (from SEK106).

Rosier estimates, combined with an increase in our long-term target EBITDA margin to

23%, better reflect the solid Q1 print, where Storytel once again outperformed on margin

expansion, and our updated long-term forecast.

We lift our target EV/EBITDA multiple to 10x from 9x to better reflect the solid subscriber

intake and earnings momentum. After taking a more conservative approach following the