Lagercrantz (1K) | Buy | Results once again show why it's best-in-class

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lagercrantz (1K) | Buy | Results once again show why it's best-in-class

68 9.45

Nordics remains the group's primary growth engine, alongside defence which has Consensus EPS 7.2 7.7

grown to c. 5% of group revenue. Both are policy-driven and multi-year in nature. Net dividend 3.10 3.50 3.90

The constraint on growth within Electrify has shifted from project approvals to FY to 31/03 (SEK) 03/27E 03/28E 04/29E

installer capacity which is a high-quality bottleneck. We forecast high-single-digit P/E adj and ful. dil. 32.9 29.8 27.3

growth in the division with upside if installer availability improves faster. EV/EBITDA 22.0 20.1 18.5

EV/EBIT 25.6 23.1 21.1

Deconstructing the forecasts FCF yield 2.9% 3.4% 3.6%

We introduce 2029E for the first time, with EBITA of SEK2.5bn at a 19.6% margin. Dividend yield 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%

The 2027-2029E progression of 18.8%/19.3%/19.6% keeps the group on a ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.3 0.8 0.2 Gearing 51.6% 27.6% -0.1%

trajectory largely consistent with management's 20% ambition within 2-3 years. ROIC 24.6% 25.5% 26.3%

Management expects contribution to be split 50/50 split accretive M&A/organic. EV/IC 7.8 7.4 7.0

Pre-results consensus stands at 18.4%/18.6%/18.8% on 2027-2029E, a gap of c. 40-

80bps that we expect to narrow as the margin progression continues. We are

4%/6%/6% above consensus EBITA on 2027E/2028E/2029E.

Valuation and investment conclusion

We raise our target price to SEK290 (275), still based on an equally weighted

Emil Nystedt average of EV/EBITA and DCF, corresponding to approximately 26x EV/EBITA on Equity Research Analyst

our 2028E. The 5.5% TP increase reflects the higher structural margin assumptions + 46 8 723 51 45

across the forecast period with a small multiple expansion. enystedt@keplercheuvreux.com