Johnson Matthey: Self-help to Elon-gate the sunset. Neutral.

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Johnson Matthey: Self-help to Elon-gate the sunset. Neutral.

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Johnson Matthey

Self-help to Elon-gate the sunset. Neutral.

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 2,250 GBp | Price: 2,108 GBp

Distribution lacking duration. Neutral. New PO £2,250p. 18 May 2026

JMAT will emerge leaner, less capex intensive, more distributive but ultimately ex-growth Equity

post Catalyst Tech disposal. The scale of the guided £1b special capital return (c30%

mkt cap), places it squarely as a cash return story near term. While steering clear of

Key Changesreinvention reinvestment looks sensible in historic context, the move does not solve

JMAT’s duration dilemma, with ICE demand (c55% core enterprise value) ultimately a (GBp) Previous Current

one-way street. The stock is on 10x 1BF EV/EBIT, which while below its long run avg Price Obj. 2,000.00 2,250.00

(ct11.5x) does not signal remarkably compelling value in our view as prior multiple 2026E EPS 169.64 151.58

reflected a different growth picture and business mix. Our revised EBIT estimates imply 2027E EPS 168.75 146.16

modest upside to company consensus (+5/4/1% for FY’26-FY’28). Our new £2,250p PO 2028E EPS 170.36 152.75

implies 7% upside potential.

John Campbell >>

Clean Air (55% of EV): Self-help to Elon-gate the sunset ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

Clean Air looks capable of growing EBIT for the coming years (BofAe: 5% 3yr CAGR to +44 20 7995 0643

FY’28) despite atrophy, but this is priced in and finite. Peer Umicore’s performance jcampbell24@bofa.com

Matthew Yates >>

implies margin headroom while recent gains and our cost base work support the thesis. Research Analyst

Longer term, we think JMAT’s bet to focus on light duty diesel is suboptimal as the fuel MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 4537

is most at risk of secular decay.