ESTC F4Q26 Preview: Expecting Stable Revenue Growth and In Line Guide

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ESTC F4Q26 Preview: Expecting Stable Revenue Growth and In Line Guide

P/S 3.8x and 9.9x EV/FY28E FCF using our plausible estimates. We maintain our Buy but are

2026 415.3 423.5 449.9 446.0E 1,734.6E adjusting our price target from $116 to $106 to account for potential guidance risk and

Prior — — — 446.6E 1,735.3E longer-term uncertainty.

P/S 3.2x

2027 479.1E 483.3E 506.1E 500.5E 1,969.0E Checks Indicate Solid Business Momentum, with Search being the Driver. We

Prior 478.3E 482.3E 506.3E 498.9E 1,965.8E spoke with two Elastic partners, both of which exceeded their quarterly targets and

P/S 2.8x expect strong momentum to continue throughout the year. Given the limited scope of

EBIT ($M) these checks, we lean more on the directional commentary than their specific numbers.

(FY APR) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Both partners attributed the strength in their Elastic practices to GenAI search, rooted

2025 37.2 64.3 64.0 59.6 225.1 in Elastic's differentiation in vector search, re-ranking capabilities, Search AI Lake,

EV/EBIT 30.2x and ongoing software optimizations like Disk BBQ (Better Binary Quantization) that

2026 65.1 69.8 83.5 64.9E 283.4E enhance the platform's value proposition relative to point solutions. Customers continue

Prior — — — 65.1E 283.5E to build AI-powered use cases on top of Elastic, including in e-commerce, retail, and

EV/EBIT 24.0x healthcare, and particularly around product catalog search and app analytics, as well

2027 71.1E 91.0E 103.9E 80.4E 346.4E as performance monitoring. Partners expect this adoption to accelerate given Elastic's

Prior 70.9E 90.7E 104.0E 80.1E 345.7E entrenched positioning as the natural entry point for these workloads. In observability and

EV/EBIT 19.7x security, partners say Elastic continues to win in log management, particularly against