CAVA Strong SSS Allows Near-Term Investments to Build National Brand

研报英文原文证据摘录

CAVA Strong SSS Allows Near-Term Investments to Build National Brand

John Ivankoe AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6487 20 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

john.ivankoe@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Remain Overweight. In our opinion, CAVA continues to be an

economically advantaged business model with high-potential

for full national penetration. Maintaining current headline

momentum with the newly launched Salmon LTO (which team

agrees is well executed) that initially began from November and

consistently accelerated through date reflects the combination

of October 9 launch of tiered rewards program, more effective

marketing and notably 2024 store openings contributing to

positive comp trends. Changes to store-level management that

YTD 1m 3m 12m replace the General Manager in Training (GMIT) role to a more

Abs 33.1% -17.6% 14.1% -13.3% experienced Assistant General Manager (AGM) role will come

Rel 22.4% -16.5% 11.1% -43.8%

with a higher pay that should be self-funded through transaction

Company Data growth.

Shares O/S (mn) 118

Valuation52-week range ($) 98.79-43.41

Market cap ($ mn) 9,244.25 Maintaining Dec-2026 price target of $90. Our valuation is

Exchange rate 1.00 based on a blend of scenarios of 2k/3.5k stores by 2037/2042

Free float (%) 85.6%

3M ADV (mn) 3.25 with AUVs of $3.80/$4.25 and 25% store-level margin at 20x

3M ADV ($ mn) 268.9 terminal EPS and 7% discount rate to arrive at our $90 Dec-26

Volatility (90 Day) 66 target. (Similar to CMG and SHAK).

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 17|13|1

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 1,180 1,498 1,791

Adj. EBITDA 153 191 234

Adj. EBIT 79 101 126

Adj. net income 64 65 84

Adj.