Why inflation might not derail equities

研报英文原文证据摘录

Why inflation might not derail equities

. 2. This creates a false impression of a world of permanently

high inflation and systemically high rates. Instead, we believe investors 42

are facing an era of high inflationary volatility (i.e. rapid rises, followed 0

by equally rapid falls) rather than one of any permanence. As humans and Feb-77 Jun-79 Oct-81 Feb-84 Jun-86 Oct-88 Feb-91 Jun-93 Oct-95 Feb-98 Jun-00 Oct-02 Feb-05 Jun-07 Oct-09 Feb-12 Jun-14 Oct-16 Feb-19 Jun-21 Oct-23 Feb-26

corporates lose pricing power, or more precisely face diminishing marginal Source: Bloomberg; Macquarie Global Strategy

utility and returns, inflation will have difficulty embedding the way it did

in the 1970s. The Fujiwara Effect (merger and reinforcement of disruptive US Zero Coupon Inflation Swaps -

1-2Y pricing ~3.5%Information Age and deep Financialization) disrupts functioning of capital

and labor, eventually reducing marginal power of both (e.g. software ate the 3.5 Zero Coupon Inflation Swap (%)

world, LLM eats software, quantum computing will eventually eat LLM etc.), 3.33.12.9

creating a disinflationary backdrop. 3. Today's world is also one of excess 2.72.5

capital (>6x GDP) and rapid business cycles (i.e. ability to create or destroy 2.32.11.9

large companies at a much faster than hitherto pace). This implies that not 1.71.5

only rates are not as potent as they used to be, but also "lost capital" could 13-Jan-23 27-Feb-23 13-Apr-23 28-May-23 12-Jul-23 26-Aug-23 10-Oct-23 24-Nov-23 8-Jan-24 22-Feb-24 7-Apr-24 22-May-24 6-Jul-24 20-Aug-24 4-Oct-24 18-Nov-24 2-Jan-25 16-Feb-25 2-Apr-25 17-May-25 1-Jul-25 15-Aug-25 29-Sep-25 13-Nov-25 28-Dec-25 11-Feb-26 28-Mar-26 12-May-26be replaced quickly. As a result, inflation-driven rates, which is usually a very