Fluidra: High-quality aftermarket story but US destocking puts earnings at risk near term; D/G to EW with €20 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fluidra: High-quality aftermarket story but US destocking puts earnings at risk near term; D/G to EW with €20 PT

Equity Research

European Capital Goods

19 May 2026

Fluidra

High-quality aftermarket story but

US destocking puts earnings at

FLUI.MC/FDR SQ EQUAL WEIGHTrisk near term; D/G to EW with €20

from Overweight

European Capital Goods NEUTRALPT

Unchanged

While we like the strong aftermarket exposure, limited Price Target EUR 20.00

exposure to the new-build segment and resilient margin lowered -33% from EUR 30.00

Price (18-May-26) EUR 18.82

profile, high inventory levels in US distribution channels raise Potential Upside/Downside +6.3%

destocking concerns over the next 2-3 quarters, which could Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

provide a better entry point. Downgrade to EW. Market Cap (EUR mn) 3615

Shares Outstanding (mn) 192.13

Where are we different? Our 2026e-28e EBITDA estimates are 5% below consensus, and we see Free Float (%) 42.59

scope for a near-term impact on the group's business due to destocking, as the largest US 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.3

distributor, Pool Corp (responsible for 60% of Fluidra's US sales) has reported record-high levels Dividend Yield (%) 3.51

of inventory (inventory-to-TTM sales at 31% vs. a long-term average of 21%). With this report, Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.48

we transfer coverage of Fluidra to Rajesh Patki. Current BVPS (EUR) 8.65

Source: Bloomberg

What is our investment thesis? We like Fluidra's well-recognised aftermarket exposure (60% of

group sales) given the large and growing installed base and limited exposure to an already Price Performance Exchange-BAR

depressed new-build segment. This, in our view, should support our mid-single digit organic 52 Week range EUR 26.22-18.17

sales growth expectations over 2026e-28e.